In ChinaMoneyPodcast.com's latest episode, the veteran investor sees increasing risks in Chinese real estate and contagion risks from Europe and the U.S.
Beijing, China — June 15, 2012 — ChinaMoneyPodcast.com has released the latest video and audio interview with Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings and a long-term China Bull, in which he turns bearish on China, a country he loves so much that he moved to Singapore in 2007 to be close to it.
"I expect the U.S. and Europe to slowdown in 2013 and 2014," says Rogers. "You have two of the largest economic blocks slowing down, so most of China — especially those dealing with Europe and the U.S. — will have problems."
Rogers made the comment during the interview on a high-speed train traveling from the Chinese cities of Tianjin and Beijing to ChinaMoneyPodcast.com, a top rated new media program focused exclusively on investing in China. The interview is now available for free in both video and audio formats on the ChinaMoneyPodcast.com website.
In the interview, Rogers sees increasing risks in China’s real estate, as the Chinese government is reported to consider loosening property control policies to arrest further economic slowdown.
"What I’m worried about is that the Chinese government loosens interest rate and bank reserve requirement ratios too soon," says Rogers. "They did this once before, and the bubble got worse, and people will lose more money ultimately."
Rogers sees bright spots in the Chinese economy as well.
"China is spending billions of dollars to clean up its air and water, so (environmental technology and) water treatment sectors will do very well."
Rogers is long known as a commodities guru, and has been calling for a long-term commodities bull market. Despite a current downturn, Rogers continues to urge investors to buy commodities.
"If you are very good at stock picking, you can buy stocks of commodity producers," says Rogers. "But studies show that you will be the most better-off if you buy the commodities themselves."
For those with less skills, Rogers recommends buying a commodities index or an ETF.
"Index and EFT investing outperform most investors 75 or 80 percent of the time, year after year."
Rogers laughs at the idea that the Chinese currency is approaching fair value.
"No, no! The RMB will go much higher against the dollar in the next ten or twenty years," he says, referring to the Japanese Yen, which has gone up 600 or 700 percent against the USD over the past few decades.
He says there will of course be fluctuations in the RMB’s valuation. But for the long-term investors, keep your RMB. As the RMB is still has tight controls, Rogers suggests buying the Hong Kong dollar.
"Once the RMB is convertible, the HK dollar will be converted into RMB, so that’s the other way to play the RMB."
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About China Money Podcast
China Money Podcast is a top rated new media program focused exclusively on investing in China. With prominent guests ranging from China-focused fund managers, economists to analysts, the podcast is widely followed by the investment community in and outside of China. Hosted by Nina Xiang, a veteran financial journalist, the podcast is the source of local knowledge and insights – on-the-go – for investors interested in China.